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Thursday, January 14, 2010

Will Google leave China?

離開谷歌中國(translation: Google is leaving China)
So what does Google leaving China mean? Well it sounds like it means something of significance doesn't it?  The consideration to do just that isn't what Google would like I am sure and the reasons for considering may not be fully understood by everyone. Having done business in China I had  to face a set of realities that drive the business decisions in a foreign culture. The simplest way for me to figure out what I could do is ask the question will the government approve of what I am doing.  If not its a non-starter.  I also discovered that there weren't negotiations like I was familiar with. If the first answer to the proposal was no, negotiating on the point was over. If the answer was we will have to look into it, then there was some opportunity to negotiate.  That's the primer on Chinese negotiations. Also a decision can come up late in the game to trump everything and reset the negotiation.  That what makes it kind of crazy for American companies to do business there.


Since Google has been constantly having to modify their business philosophy,  products and business model to operate in China it might have finally run up against things that were not negotiable and counter to their business model. Since search is Google's core product, if the Chinese government wanted them to totally control what is searched for, which is likely, then the Execs at Google may have decided to throw in the towel. Google hasn't given this kind of control to the US Government, or any government that I know of despite all of the conspiracy theories. 


It will be interesting to watch and see if Google has a gambit to keep themselves in China. I'd never bet against Google, but this time I'm holding off betting on anyone.




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